Buhari Social Program: Laudable, Laughable Or Dead On Arrival Part I By Solomon Tonye aka Barcanista

1.       Buhari/APC To Pay 25m Unemployed N5000 Per Month
Cost Implication:
The implication here is that the sum of N125billion (ie 25million * N5000) will be spent to service this policy every month, and an estimated N1.5 trillion (ie N125bn * 12 months) will be spent on this policy alone every year.

2. Buhari/APC To Provide Daily Meal for Primary School pupils.
First, the FG has no business with the running of Primary schools. This is the responsibility of States and Local Government. However, Buhari's administration pledged to provide at least one meal per day for Primary school Children, we shall hold him accountable.
Cost Implication:
Osun State reportedly spent N3.2billion in 2014 for the feeding of 300,000 primary 1 to 4 pupils in the state. The Osun state program exclude pupils in Primary 5 and 6. If we are to break it per pupil, we will have N10,667 per pupil(ie 3.2b/300k). Considering that over 35million children are estimated to be enrolled in Primary school across the country, at least the sum of THREE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY THREEE BILLION (N373b) is estimated to be spent on the program annually(ie 35m * 10,667).

Gross Annual Estimated Cost For Both Programs
N1.5trn + N373b = N1.873trn

That means Buhari is to increase our Recurrent Expenditure by N1.83trn.

How Feasible Are These Programs?
Let us take a look at the key component of the 2015 Budget(as adjusted by the Senate).
Total Budget Stand at N4.3trn.
Recurrent Expenditure: N2.58 trillion
Capital Expenditure: N700 billion

From where will Buhari See N1.8trn To Service His Social Programs?
- Remove Subsidy? If he's thinking of scrapping fuel subsidy, the adjusted allocation for petrol subsidy in 2015 budget is N100billion. The adjusted allocation for SURE-P is N21b, while the subsidy for kerosene for 2015 was adjusted to N45.5b. This gives a total of N166.5b.
Even if he should scrap SURE-P and remove the petrol and kerosene subsidy, he still won't be able to get 1% of the N1.8trn.

- Spend All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? Even if Buhari is to spend all our N700b Capital Expenditure on his Social program in addition to the N166.5billion subsidy funds, it still won't be enough as it will fall short of One Trillion Naira.
N700b + N166.5b= N866 billion

- Money Appropriated To NASS? The total budget for the National Assembly for 2015 is N115b. Even if Buhari is to spend this money + subsidy allocation + Capital Expenditure to fund his program, he won't be able to raise the required fund. As all appropriation combined stand at N981billion(ie N700b + N115b + N166b)

So How Does Buhari intend to raise N1.873trillion to fulfil this social welfare pledge? Does this mean the administration has failed even before starting? Dead on arrival?

Monthly/ Yearly "Security Votes" Appropriation Of State Governors In Nigeria - By Solomon Tonye aka Barcanista

SOUTH EAST:
Imo state: N4billion Per Year

Enugu state: N600million Per month

Anambra state: N850M Monthly (N10b Yearly)

Abia state: N700Million Monthly (N8.4billion Yearly)

*Ebonyi state: No Record Available

SOUTH SOUTH:
Cross river state: N500Million Monthly (N6 billion Annually)

Rivers state: N1.5billion Monthly (N18 billion Annually)

Akwa Ibom state: N1.8Billion Monthly (N21.6 billion Annually)

Edo state: N900Million Monthly(as at 2008/Could be more) 

Delta state: N2Billion Monthly (N24 billon Annually)


*Bayelsa state: No Record Available


SOUTH WEST
Lagos state: N17.149 Annually [N15.559B (Public order and safety) + N1.59B (Social Protection)]

Ondo state: N600M monthly (N7.2 billion Annually)

Osun state: N400M monthly (N4.8 billion annually)
www.punchng.com/news/salaries-workers-demand-cut-in-governors-security-votes/

Oyo state: Not Specified but the Governor draws his security votes from annual "General Administration" budget of N44.559 Billion annually
www.punchng.com/news/salaries-workers-demand-cut-in-governors-security-votes/

Ogun state: N80-N100Million Monthly (N960 Million- N1.2 billion Annually)
www.punchng.com/news/salaries-workers-demand-cut-in-governors-security-votes/

Ekiti state: N100million monthly (N1.2 billion annually)
www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/apc-fayose-bicker-over-kidnappings-in-ekiti/

NORTH EAST
Borno state: N9.675billion Annually
http://leadership.ng/news/350733/five-northern-states-spend-n30-4bn-security-2014

Yobe state: N3.8billion Annually
http://leadership.ng/news/350733/five-northern-states-spend-n30-4bn-security-2014

Taraba State: N200m Monthly (N2.4billion Annually)
http://saharareporters.com/2013/12/03/more-half-billion-naira-spent-governor-suntai’s-treatment’s-investigations-reveal

Bauchi state: N17billion Annualy
http://247ureports.com/lawmakers-stop-yuguda-questions-n17billion-security/

Adamawa state: No Record Available

Gombe state: No Record Available


NORTH WEST
Kano State: N0.00 (I love Kwankwaso)

Kaduna state: N4.8 billion Annually (N2.1 billion as security vote and another N2.7 billion tagged “Security Vote (Preventive and Supportive)” for the SSG’s office.)

Katsina state: N211 million Annually

Zamfara state: N600m Monthly (N7.2billion Annually)

Kebbi state: No Record Available

Sokoto state: No Record Available

Jigawa state: No Record Available

NORTH CENTRAL
Benue state: Not Specified. N37.1 billion allocation to personnel and overhead costs annually which cover security vote, among others.
http://leadership.ng/news/350733/five-northern-states-spend-n30-4bn-security-2014

Niger state: Not Specified but the Governor draws his security votes from annual N15.7 billion for general administration
http://leadership.ng/news/350733/five-northern-states-spend-n30-4bn-security-2014

Plateau state: N2.6billion Annually
http://leadership.ng/news/350733/five-northern-states-spend-n30-4bn-security-2014

Kogi state: N400Million monthly (N4.8 billion Annually)
www.punchng.com/news/salaries-workers-demand-cut-in-governors-security-votes/

Nasarawa state: N100Million Monthly (N1.2 billion annually)
http://www.informationng.com/2015/03/ill-use-n100m-monthly-security-vote-to-provide-rural-communities-in-nasarawa-with-water-maku.html

Kwara state: No Record Available

See What Lai Mohammed and Tinubu said About Tambuwal Emergence in 2011

Several lackeys of the National leader of the APC have been calling for disciplinary actions against the National assembly leaders that emerged yesterday.
‎
While such call were not unexpected considering the humiliation they suffered yesterday ,it is  the hypocritical nature of those making these calls and the Leaders of the All Progressives confidence ( sorry ) Congress that is increasingly becoming nauseating.

The tendency of these people to always  shift the goal post each time the are placed on the "Barometer" is the reason so many Nigerians have began to question their sincerity and ability to deliver on their pre-election Promises.

Hear Tinubu on Tuesday June 7th ‎2011( Leadership)

"said he was under tremendous pressure to toe the line of the PDP to support a South West candidate for the position but had to halt his support for any candidate based on his conviction that the legislature was a separate arm of government that should be allowed to produce its own leaders independently.

He hinted that he personally instructed all 70 ACN members to vote for Tambuwal "

Is this different from what PDP did?

The National Publicity secretary has been threatening fire and brimstone but take a look at this reaction in 2011 when his cabal installed  Tambuwal
‎

"Of course, it was politics. Would we be that silly to vote for the candidate of the President in the House of Representatives and have no leverage whatsoever in that very important House where we have about 70 of our members? Of course, the role of the opposition is not to make the work of the government easy. It is to keep them on their toes. Look at what has happened today. Because of our influence in the House of Representatives, the House has now looked more closely at the proclamation of State of Emergency in some states"

Now Lai is asking APC members to do what he once described as silly!

What Saraki and Dogara have done is the same thing Tinubu, Akande , Aregbesola, Lai Mohammed and others did and we're celebrated in 2011.

The APC has no moral justification whatsoever to Expel, Suspend or Discipline any of them, since they were simply just being  good disciples of the doctrine of subversion created by the leaders and perfected by their followers.

Jerimiah 31 :29 (b) puts it Perfectly ;

"The fathers have eaten a sour grape, and the children's teeth are set on edge"‎

May God Bless Nigeria

Who Says Buhari Has Out-performed His Predecessor? By Solomon Tonye Aka Barcanista

It is shocking that agents of the administration have started with their propaganda to deceive Nigerians. Only yesterday, Alhaji Lai Muhammed came out to praise the government and even stated that it has done a lot more than his predecessor. I believe that we should all look into the administration to determine the scector that Buhari performed. Please forgive me for the "lenghty write-up"

Corruption
It is on record that since President Buhari took over power from Dr Goodluck Jonathan, he is yet to initiate any high profile corruption case nor vigorously pursued those he inherited. Buhari inherited the case against exGov Timpre Sylva, disgraced Adamawa state exGov Muritala Nyako, his son Abdulaziz Nyako. He also inherited the case against exMinister Femi Fani Kayode, exGov Ali Modu Sheriff and immediate past Governor of Jigawa state Sule Lamido(and his sons). The case of Sylva is well publicised. Murtala Nyako was impeached for corruption and fled the country in 2014. He was declared wanted by EFCC in Feb 4, 2015 along with his son Abdulaziz Nyako. The exGov "magestically" returned to Nigeria 24hrs after Buhari took over. He reported himself to EFCC, drank coffee with the commission staffs and came out smiling. He has been granted "administrative bail" by the same commission that declared him wanted 5months ago. His son Abdulaziz was also declared wanted in Feb for N15billion fraud and was arrested in his hiding in Gombe state two weeks later. Funny enough the APC gifted him Adamawa South Senatorial ticket which they won. Nothing is heard of his case since Buhari took over. Modu Sheriff was first invited in April 23 by EFCC. He declined the invitation. The EFCC under Jonathan on May 24 announced that they will declare him wanted. Jonathan left power and Sheriff appeared from nowhere to visit EFCC. He himself went there to drink coffee and walked out. Nothing is heard of his case again. Buhari also inherited the case against FFK which EFCC under Jonathan had been pursuing with vigour. However, Buhari's EFCC failed to show up in court on the day of judgement. In fact, it was FFK's lawyer that was "begging" the judge to pass judgement on Thursday June 18. For the case of Sule Lamido, the EFCC had arrested his two sons for laundering N10billion in Nov 2013 which was linked to their father. Buhari inherited the case but the exGov "surrendered" himself to EFCC under Buhari, drank his own coffee and walked out gallantly. Not a single high profile corruption case that Buhari inherited is being pursued vigorously. The EFCC swooped on Ikedi Ohakim the ex-Imo state Governor few days ago and released him almost immediately. No case was heard about the former governor afterward.

In addition to the above, President Buhari is yet to initiate arrest and prosecution of any low profile case. The interrogation of NNPC officials was as a result of the May 18 directive that the exPetroleum Minister Diezani Madueke sent to EFCC after getting approval of then President Goodluck Jonathan. The 14 foreigners that are being tried for oil theft were arrested on March 8 under Jonathan by the Navy. They were later handed over to EFCC. The case of CBN fraudsters that are being tried for N8billion fraud was actually started in September 2014. The EFCC started their investigation in November 2014 and their arraignment followed after rigorous investigation. All these are under Jonathan. How many corruption cases has Buhari started? How can Buhari spokesperson claim Buhari has achieved more?

Security
Between Feb 13 and May 29, Nigeria recorded huge success against BH terrorists. Since Buhari took over, BH have struck more than 12 times, killing over 600 Nigerians as a result. The case of the Chibok girls is not even being talked of. So in what way has Buhari achieved more than Jonathan in Security?

Economy:
Since May 29, Nigeria's economy has been on the decline. According to The Punch, As of Thursday June 18, three weeks after the inauguration of the President on May 29, the value of equities listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange had declined by N238bn or 2.04 per cent, while the NSE All-Share Index fell by 2.47 per cent or 849.87 basis points.(Punch 19, June 2015). There is no policy framework on the economy as at today. Nigeria is floating on Auto-piloting system. So what has Buhari achieved?

Infrastructure, Education and Political Stability
Since taking over government, Buhari is yet to mix "cement and sand together" not to talk of kick starting infrastructural project. Nothing has even been heard of electrixity so far. Similarly, new policy direction has been heard on Education. The government and the party almost held the country and the National Assembly to ransom all because their preferred candidates lost principal office positions. This almost created a political chaos.
What has Buhari really achieved in these sectors?

Propaganda:
The government and their agents seem to be determined to "rule" the country according to the tenet of propaganda. Earlier this month, APC senior chief Nasir elrufai told the world that officers of past administration have started returning stolen money. Because it is was a lie, he couldn't name any official. He didn't even mention the amount returned, time the money was returned, and the receiving party.

The government is also trying to deceive Nigerians that they are winning the war on terrorism because foreign governments pledged support. However, they failed to tell Nigerians that the rhetoric support of foreign government is not new. In fact on May 14 2014, world powers pledged to Nigeria under Dr Jonathan that they will support the anti-terrorism war  It is also hypocritical and "propagandious" for President Buhari to count his "tour" as achievement just to deceive Nigerians.

The NNPC recently announced that the refineries "WILL" start working by next month (in their bid to give Nigerians the false hope that the government is working). However, they failed to tell Nigerians that President Buhari did not have a SINGLE input in the refineries turn around maintenance. In fact, he had no clue about what the contract papers look like. Anyway, the refinery is not working yet, we shall discuss more when it start to work.

In the first week of the administration, to appear transparent, the government tried to play on our intelligence by trying to use the secret Asset Declaration with CCB to equate the Public Asset Declaration. In fact, the spokesman of Buhari even boasted that by "declaring with the CCB, the President and his Vice had fulfilled their pledge". Nigerians resisted and insisted on seeing Buhari and Osinbajo Assets. They(APC) came up with another story that they are waiting for the 30days verification of CCB. Though we know their lies, we are counting on days and we shall remind them at the appropriate time.

I want to use this medium to appeal to the APC administration to forget the propaganda idea because we will not allow them such luxury. Nigerians should be rest assured that we will not stop to put the government to their toes despite the intimidation and verbal assault from some of their supporters.



Ramadan Kareem To All Muslims
God Bless Us All

Buhari's Media Adviser Express Frustration Over Destructive Criticisms - Oche Joseph O

Media adviser to the President, Mallam  Garba Shehu has expressed sadness over the manner, In which Nigerians on twitter have been criticizing the administration of General Buhari.

Shehu who took to twitter few minutes ago expressed frustration with the manner of the  criticisms which he described as destructive.

The criticism  here sometimes could be very destructive & harsh while a few others are rather constructive enough to keep us on our toes" he said.

The also informed his followers of his new instagram account.

Instagram is a Social media networking site  primarily for pictures and Videos. Ironically Nigerians have of late been complaining of the never ending photograph sessions  which has been the preoccupation of the Buhari administration which has painfully failed  to live of to the high expectations Nigerians had expected. Considering the fact that he and the APC promised to hit the ground running.

Saraki Vs Tinubu Comparism: Why Overrate Bukola Saraki - Solomon Tonye - aka Barcanista

I read an article on Nairaland that drew comparism between Senate President Bukola Saraki and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Being a pro-pdp commentator and a campaigner for Saraki's Senate Presidency, some may expect me to naturally be on the side of the Saraki. But this will not be so because I can't live in self deception.

Yes, Bola Tinubu was a Senator, two term Governor of Lagos state and political godfather of the state. Saraki on the other hand is the incumbent SP, a two term Governor of Kwara state and the political godfather of the state. However, there are more to this.

Senator Bola Tinubu
For those that aren't aware, Bola Tinubu rise to power as Lagos state governor in 1999 was associated with his 1993 democratic struggle against IBB first and later Sani Abacha. The AD 1999 contest was direct struggle between the favored late engineer Funso Williams and the political activist Bola Tinubu. Tinubu as at then had little political structure but somehow beat the late engineer to the AD ticket. In 2003 he somehow outsmarted some Afenifere leaders of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and got re-elected, all other five AD incumbent governors bowed to the power of PDP. He consolidated his hold on power by dismantling the existing Afenifere structure in the party by forming the Action Congress in 2006 with the absorption of two mushroom parties-Justice party(JP) and Advance Congress of Democrats (ACD). His leaving AD crumbled the party forever.

In 2006 Bola Tinubu led AC gave embattled Vice President Atiku Abubakar a political lifeline after the Turaki Alhaji was whipped to size by then President Olusegun Obasanjo. Atiku had to defect to AC along with his loyalist Governor of Adamawa state Mr Boni Haruna. Also to defect were Chief Audu Ogbeh former National Chairman of PDP from Benue state. During the 2007 election run-up, Tinubu media tried to polish Atiku's image to counter the negative image from the FG as Atiku was the AC Presidential candidate for 2007. Though Atiku won Lagos state in a landslide thanks to Tinubu structure, he lost Adamawa state (his home state) to Muhammadu Buhari. Atiku's AC candidate for the Adamawa guber election also lost woefully to PDP's Admiral Nyako.

In the run-up to 2007 general election, there was a major shakes in the Lagos state chapter of AC. Tinubu had "imposed" his unknown Chief of Staff Raji Fashola as his party's governorship candidate over heavyweights like Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Mr Jimi Agbaje, Hon Ganiyu Solomon, Dep Gov Femi Pedro etc. Jimi left to fly the flag of DPA, Pedro was given the flag of LP, Afikuyomi was given the ANPP flag(he later returned to AC on election eve) while Solomon was compensated with a Senatoral ticket of AC. Tinubu's AC still managed to win the Guber and all Senate seats. The unknown Raji Fashola became Governor courtesy Tinubu. Not just that, Bola Tinubu deployed his loyalists Rauf Aregbesola to Osun state to unseat incumbent Olagunsoye Oyinlola of PDP. Fayemi was also deployed to Ekiti state where he defeated Segun Oni (credit to Ayo Fayose support). It was Tinubu legal machinery led by Yemi Osinbajo that fought to help LP's Rahman Mimiko to unseat PDP's Segun Agagu. Adams Oshiomole had to seek refuge in AC in 2007 when he saw that the LP can't help him dislodge PDP from Edo Government house.

The 2010 Atiku's exit of AC gave Tinibu a major setback. Nevertheless, his AC/ACN managed to sweep all SW states but Ondo state and also got a Senatorial seat from PDP's stronghold-Benue state in the 2011 election. As at today, Bola Tinubu controls the APC structure in the entire South except Rivers and Imo states.

In his political sojourn, Bola Tinubu has churned out prominent names like Sen Musliu Obanikoro (a former ally and Commissioner under Tinubu), Raji Fashola (a former governor that rode to power via Tinubu's benevolence), Rauf Aregbesola (Incumbent Governor of Osun state), Kayode Fayemi (defeated exGovernor of Ekiti state), and even VP Yemi Osinbajo is in power thanks to Tinubu.

Senator Bukola Saraki:
Saraki was a "mere" appointee of Obasanjo prior to the 2003 Governorship election. He won the PDP primaries courtesy Oloye Olusola Saraki, his father and political godfather of Kwara state. He was to be elected as Kwara state governor not on his own but solely on his father. His father had installed then Governor Lawal in 1999 and replaced him him Bukola in 2003. In 2010 Saraki declared for President. He along with IBB and Atiku Abubakar were the Northern PDP aspirants that sought to unseat President Jonathan in 2011. In same 2010 a Northern caucus within the PDP called for a consensus Northern candidate among the three northern aspirants. Atiku defeated Saraki and IBB to be the northern candidate for the PdP. Saraki pledged his allegiance to Atiku during the PDP Presidential primaries for 2011 election but Atiku lost WOEFULLY to incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. Saraki couldn't even influence other North Central PDP caucus apart from his Kwara to vote Atiku.

In 2011 Saraki's father wanted Bukola to go to Senate but Gbemi his daughter to become Governor. Saraki however had Abdulfattah Ahmed in mind. The truth is Saraki and his father played a fast one on Kwara people. The ACN candidate Muhammed Balgore was gaining momentum, Saraki's father had to play the Gbemi card by forming ACPN to confuse the electorates and split the ACN's vote. In fact, on June 5, 2011 just 8 days after Gov Ahmed was inaugurated , Olusola Saraki and Bukola Saraki "re-united" after Bukola "begged", the PDP and Pa Saraki ACPN merged as one BIG Family. Pa Olusola Saraki was again affirmed to be the leader of PDP in Kwara. Saraki and his sister Gbemi were to play the same trick in 2015. How? Gbemi remained in PDP after Saraki moved to APC in 2013. She caused lots of troubles and had her faction and then dumped PDP to APC on the eve of 2015 Presidential election after deliberately destroyed the party from within.

Saraki's ascension to Senate Presidency is not due to the political commando of Saraki but because he had to bend to PDP's compromise and also because PDP needed to neutralise APC's proposed structure. It would have infact been the reverse if Saraki was APC candidate and Lawan was the rebel. Also note that the power and influence of the Senate President starts and ends inside the Senate Chamber and the occupant's Senatorial district. In fact, Senators may elect to kick him out if he bites more than he can chew. Also looking at Saraki, with exception of Governor Ahmed I don't think Saraki can boast of any influential loyalist. Even Ahmed is not a force of influence among Governors like we have Rochas of Imo, Wike of Rivers, Amosun of Ogun, Ajimobi of Oyo, Fayose of Ekiti, Oshiomole of Edo, Shetimma of Borno, Obiano of Anambra etc.

Comparing Bola Ahmed Tinubu political influence with that of Bukola Saraki is like comparing an Eagle with a tse-tse fly simply because both have wings. Saraki's sycophant should not make him believe that he rose to SP seat on his own.


CAVEAT: This article is purely on the political influence of both men. It is not an endorsement of either party nor a statement of sainthood.